The UK economy entered 2025 with cautious optimism, showing early signs of recovery after years of stagnation. Real GDP grew by 0.5% in February and 0.6% over the preceding three months, driven mainly by the services sector, particularly retail and wholesale. Forecasts suggest GDP growth could reach 1.7% in 2025, up from 0.8% in 2024, though global trade tensions -especially new US tariffs – pose significant risks. The IMF warns these tariffs could reduce US GDP by 1% and global GDP by 0.5% through 2026, with the UK vulnerable due to its reliance on global supply chains. A $1.4 trillion global economic loss is projected, with UK retail and wholesale facing slower exports, inventory delays, and volatile import prices.
Despite these challenges, retail and wholesale remain vital to the UK economy, employing 3.7 million people and contributing £112 billion in 2024. Retail alone supported 2.7 million jobs across over 320,000 businesses. Although the sector rebounded to pre-pandemic output by 2020, growth has since been subdued. Wholesale, often overlooked, plays a key role in supporting trade and supply chains.
Investment in IT has surged, with digital transformation reshaping operations. Retailers and wholesalers are adopting AI, automation, and omni-channel strategies to enhance efficiency and customer experience. AI is widely used for demand forecasting, inventory management, and personalised marketing. In wholesale, digital platforms and real-time logistics have improved responsiveness and reduced costs. However, R&D spending growth has slowed, indicating a focus on proven technologies over speculative innovation.
Looking ahead, the sector’s resilience and digital adaptability position it well to navigate economic uncertainty. Continued investment in technology is expected to drive productivity, strengthen supply chains, and support sustainable growth, even amid global trade disruptions and evolving consumer behaviour.
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